Analysis and Deconstruction of WTR

I’ve considered doing this article for some time and the catalyst for writing it now was watching the video by NoZoupForYou found here. He makes some very valid and straight forward points about the current metric that Warship players use the measure themselves and others by. So why is WTR such ‘BS’ as Zoup so eloquently put it? Further, if it is such BS why does everyone use it and is there anything better?

 

What is WTR?

The first order of business is to discuss WTR and how it’s calculated. As mentioned on the Warships.Today website, WTR consists average damage, average kills (both ships and planes on a 20:1 ratio) and Win Rate, in a 50:30:20 composition respectively.[1] If you are confused as to what this means, your damage above that of the average accounts for half of your WTR, while the combination of the other two account for the other half. Simply put, in order to boost your WTR, do lots of damage. These ratios are important to consider because even if you get below average kills and win rate, but still maintain a higher than average damage, you will maintain or boost your WTR. Statistically, this is flawed in my opinion if you want to have a true measure of someone’s skill. It’s really just measuring someone’s ability to deal damage and get a few kills. Further, WTR utilizes coefficients for each variable to counter the fact that zeros will occur. This is important as you can’t divide by zero, but more so as you are given points based on what everyone else has done, for doing nothing – in theory.

These measures, though they can affect the outcome of a battle in the long run, do not directly help the team win the battle in the short run. It does not account for cap points[2] – a key component in winning a battle and in defining team play, it doesn’t account for spotting, concealing teammates, karma points, survivability or anything else that could help the team.

 

Why Does Everyone Use It?

The biggest reason it is so popular as a player metric for World of Warships is it was the only one out there, and as such has built a large ‘fan’ base as it were. Another reason that is it popular is, for those that came from World of Tanks, it looks and acts a lot like the WN8 rating that has become the standard for that game. Think of it like a bad ISP (internet service provider) at this point, if it’s the only game in town, and you want internet, you buy into that one. It probably has horrible speeds and is very unreliable, but it’s the only thing you have so what the hay. Back to the case of WTR, everyone wants to know how ‘good’ they are or how good or bad someone else is and they need that one stick to measure them by. WTR is that stick.

Is There Anything Better?

To my knowledge, there is nothing better out there yet to measure a player’s skill like WTR is. With that said, and to reiterate what was earlier discussed, measuring a player’s overall skill in this game just doesn’t work well due to the differences in ship classes and game balance. This leads me to the only current alternative that I am aware of and that’s the WoWReplays Ship Rating. Bias aside, it considers more measures to calculate the rating and does not need coefficients to counter zeros due to the nature in which it’s calculated and focuses on a players ability in individual ships as opposed to overall. However, there are flaws with the measure, particularly for CV players, which are being addressed. Further, with the acquisition of the Blowfish key to decrypt the replay files, we’ll be able to capture and utilize far more data, more accurately, to tweak the Ship Rating and make it even better. Finally, there are plans in the works to create a site, much like Warships.Today and wowstats.org, dedicated solely to the statistical information of individual players. Until that point however, the current Ship Rating will continue to be tweaked and refined to make it as accurate as possible.

 

Conclusion

The WTR is flawed for sure, but as I have mentioned in previous articles, it’s a tool. Though it might not be the best tool for the job, when used correctly and in conjunction with the others available, it can still be quite useful. It is not the be all, end all by any means, nor is the Ship Rating. They both use some of the same information to create a singular number that is easy to read, but do it differently. We have to use the information that we have available and both sites have done so. My personal advice on the matter however is when you use this information to ‘measure’ a player other than yourself, consider ALL the factors that go into its creating before your final decision and then look that the player’s individual numbers to verify. Happy Sailing.


[1] https://na.warships.today/help/warships_today_rating

[2] The data supplied to both WoWReplays and Warships.Today via the WG API in regards to cap points is incorrect. There is currently no way, using that data, to correctly compare a player’s average cap points to that of the population, either per ship or population.

WoWReplays Ship and Aggression Ratings

Ship Rating

The WoWReplays Ship rating is evaluating the player’s average statistics (ability) in a ship against the overall population of average statistics in that ship. No weights are currently applied to any of the values.

Formula Components:

  • Win Rate
  • Damage
  • Kills
  • Experience
  • Survived Wins[1]
  • Survival Rate

Continue reading “WoWReplays Ship and Aggression Ratings”

Analysis of Stat Measurements: How They are Created and What They Mean

For the past few months, I have been working closely with Jammin411 of WoWReplays.com to validate and recreate the Ship Rating and Aggression/Passiveness statistics that are used on the website. Literally, millions of cases of data have been analyzed to find the best variables to use and how to make them come together to get the results that we are looking for. Both stats offered their own challenges such as, “What are we trying to measure?” “What variables can be used to measure that?” “Is this really measuring what we want it to?” and “How do we explain these to the community?” This article will go on to explain the process, in short, of how the formulas were created and how the variables used were chosen. Further, I will also explain what the scores for each represent and what to you need to know when reading them on the site.

Continue reading “Analysis of Stat Measurements: How They are Created and What They Mean”

Secondary Monster: Who has the Best Secondaries in the Game?

It was suggested that I analyze whether or not it was worth the credits and captains points to spec out certain ships for secondaries or to use them for other things. With the current data, this is almost impossible as it would be very difficult to collect the data or even run a small experiment due to the sheer number of possibilities. However, what I can do is make a determination on which ship has the best secondaries in the game – period. The top three contenders, for data that I currently have available (and there is not enough data yet for the Tirpitz – I may revisit this in the future), are the Bismark, Yamato, and Großer Kurfürst (G.K.). They all have a vast array of secondary guns that with the right modules, training, and flags are capable of engaging targets out to 10.6km. So how do they stack up against each other and who’s the best? First, let’s get a breakdown of the secondaries of each ship.

Continue reading “Secondary Monster: Who has the Best Secondaries in the Game?”

Tier 10 Battleships: A Statistical Analysis of Current Player Performance

Using a one-way ANOVA, player performance for the tier ten battleships was analyzed based on win rate and average damage as well as the new, unpublished WoWReplays.com Ship Rating and Aggression Rating. Significant differences were found between all ships in all but aggression. While the Yamato is still the top performer, the G.K. is a close second while there is much need for a buff to the Montana.

As many high tier battleship players are aware, there is a noticeable difference between the three current tier ten battleships – Yamato, Montana and Großer Kurfürst (G.K.). As of the writing of this article Warships.Today reports the Yamato as the top performing ship, followed closely by the G.K. then the Montana (Table 1)[1]. Each ship has a slightly difference play style, which has largely been carried down through their respective tech trees. These differences in play style, in the hands of a good captain, should lead to similar performance statistics among the three top tier battle ships if the ships are truly balanced. Most players who have sailed all three, or at least the original two (Montana and Yamato), know that this is not the case and that the Montana tends to perform worse than the other two. This has also been noted by several community contributors in both the EU and NA. But is this a case of confirmation bias? As Table 1. outlines, though the win rates for the top two ships are identical, there is a difference in their damage, but is that difference significant? Further, there is a notable difference between the Montana and the other two ships, like before, are these differences significant? These are the questions I have sought to answer and have analyzed my current data batch to do just that.

Continue reading “Tier 10 Battleships: A Statistical Analysis of Current Player Performance”

Using Stats to Your Advantage: Reading the Available Data

As with many games these days’ statistics have become an integral part of the gaming experience. This is no different in World of Warship. The statistics available to the player and community as a whole can be overwhelming. So how do you sort through them? What do they mean? Can they really tell if a player is a good player or bad player? In this article, I hope to answer every one of those questions as well as go into a bit more detail on reading some of the stats that are displayed on the many sites and apps.

Continue reading “Using Stats to Your Advantage: Reading the Available Data”

World of Warships: A Statistical Analysis of Win Rate and Aggression Attributes – Questioning the Current Meta

In the last 6 months or so Wargaming has tried to push more aggressive tactics and play into World of Warships with its multiple changes and additions to the game. Included in these changes has been the addition of radar and hydroacoustic search, the introduction of the brawling German Battleships, and most recently, and certainly one of the more contentious changes, the elimination of stealth firing. In theory, these changes would force players to push into smoked up destroyers or push into capture points, force the use of guns and maneuverability and create a necessity for the use of secondary guns. In fact, what has been observed by myself, and confirmed by others, at least on the North American server, is quite the opposite. The removal of stealth fire has required many of the destroyers to sit in their own smoke, as opposed to using it for teammates, and shoot high explosive at the enemy. It has also forced the cruisers that were capable of stealth fire to maintain range and use their mobility to deal damage with shells and fire while reducing their own damage. This in turn removes them from the battle, certainly on an aggression stance.

Continue reading “World of Warships: A Statistical Analysis of Win Rate and Aggression Attributes – Questioning the Current Meta”